TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/100190/1001107.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5.6 KB | 121 lines

                                                                                NATION, Page 42

Throw Some of the Bums Out!


Rage wins in Massachusetts and Oklahoma, but most congressional
incumbents are still sitting pretty

By LAURENCE I. BARRETT -- With reporting by Sam Allis/Boston


    Boom! John Silber, defying polls and diverse voter groups
insulted by his reckless rhetoric, trounces the party's
mediocrity of choice to become the Democratic candidate for
Governor in Massachusetts. Republicans nominate William Weld,
a tough ex-prosecutor, rather than a gray legislator blessed
by the G.O.P. convention.

    Bang! On the same day last week, Oklahoma voters approve,
by a 2-to-1 margin, a referendum limiting the tenure of state
legislators to 12 years. This first-in-the-nation uprising
against career lawmakers will probably be duplicated in
California and Colorado come November.

    Did these loud noises signal mass execution of incumbents
this fall? Or were they merely firecrackers set off by local
heat waves? David Carney, head of the White House political
office, took the expansive view: "People are sick of
incumbents. They're absolutely fed up." Howard Schloss,
speaking for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,
insists that incumbency is still a huge asset. "The ballot box
is sending one message, and the theorists another." In fact,
the results seem to highlight an odd disjuncture in the American
political system: Carney is right about the voters'
damn-all-politicians resentments, but Schloss appears right
about probable outcomes this November.

    Publication of a comprehensive poll by the Times Mirror Co.
last week compounded insiders' angst by showing that political
dyspepsia has worsened. For instance, 78% say that elected
federal officials quickly lose touch with constituents (vs. 73%
in a comparable poll three years ago). The proposition that
ordinary people lack influence on government action gets
agreement from 57%, up 5 points.

    Yet neither signs of hardening alienation nor scattered
election returns signal border-to-border upheaval. Norman
Ornstein, a consultant on the Times Mirror project, argues,
"Linkage between these attitudes and political action hasn't
yet been made in most places." One reason is that the Persian
Gulf crisis has dominated the news and overshadowed the
hard-to-focus outrage at the S&L debacle. Further, many
entrenched incumbents raised so much money so early that worthy
rivals never entered the fray.

    Of the 400 primaries for House seats this year, just one
incumbent fell (he had been convicted of having sex with an
underage girl). Come November, 82 House candidates will face
no real opposition at all. Of the 435 races, 60 at most are
considered competitive. In 1988, 99% of those seeking
re-election to the House won. The figure will probably be
similar this year. Senate elections are always more volatile,
and a few incumbents do appear vulnerable. Still, of the 35
Senate contests, 16 have either no opponent or merely token
opposition.

    Last week's explosions resulted from particularly
combustible circumstances. In Oklahoma, voters gagged on tax
increases and focused their animosity on the state legislature.
Thus they were primed for the term-limit referendum, billed by
its backers as "a citizens' revolt against professional
politicians." In Massachusetts the economy had imploded, along
with Governor Michael Dukakis' standing. Public anger escalated
along with the deficit. When Dukakis chose to retire, party
regulars turned to Francis Bellotti, 67, a swaybacked former
attorney general burdened with a liberal business-as-usual
image.

    Enter John Silber, president of Boston University, a
Reaganite Democrat who has long advertised his disdain for
Dukakis. Silber tossed off offensive remarks -- toward
bureaucrats, the elderly, feminists, ghetto residents, Jews --
the way most candidates distribute campaign buttons. But he
came across as an exemplar of change (and anger) at a moment
when voters hungered for nothing but. In the end, his laser lip
earned him the same anti-politician cachet that has propelled
the cowboy campaign of Clayton Williams, the Republican
candidate for Governor in Silber's native state of Texas.
Silber, like Williams, is viewed as a populist. A hallmark of
populism, from the left or the right, is exploitation of anger
against the status quo. "I understood the outrage," Silber
said.

    Being a non-politician has been helpful to many candidates,
and William Weld, the pluperfect blueblood who won the
Republican primary to oppose Silber in November, also played
that card. His opponent, Steven Pierce, the house minority
leader, matched Bellotti's shopworn look. The record turnout
of Bay State voters demonstrated the public's tendency to turn
on state officials with more wrath than it shows to members of
Congress in troubled times. The culpability of federal
lawmakers is more easily hidden. That explains why, in addition
to Dukakis, nine other Governors are voluntarily retiring this
year.

    But even in this roiled setting some state executives are
easily handling challenges by unconventional outsiders. Though
New York has its share of difficulties, Governor Mario Cuomo
has such velocity that his Republican opponent, economist
Pierre Rinfret, talked last week of quitting the race. Thus
Cuomo, like many other familiar faces, seems certain to survive
November's test. In most venues, the combination of public
indignation and candidates deft enough to exploit it has not
reached critical mass -- at least not yet.